Has America completed its shift of strategic focus east?Ditching the Cake of Middle East interests for the Pacific?

2022-05-28 0 By

Recently, the White House officially announced the national defense budget for fiscal year 2023, which attracted worldwide attention.Its total budget of $5.8 trillion is slightly lower than last fiscal year’s final budget, but its $813.3 billion military spending is up about 4 percent from the previous fiscal year.Some American politicians still do not feel “safe” with such a large budget for military spending.An unprecedented $130 billion of this spending goes to research.This is an increase of 30 billion dollars from last year.Of that, about $7 billion was directed against Russia, and almost all the rest against China.In addition, the White House announced it would retire 150 fighter jets and more than a dozen ships, saving maintenance money to upgrade advanced weaponry, shrink the overall force and build a more modern U.S. military.We can expect that the United States will have more frequent military interventions in the world, focusing on strategically encircling And suppressing China.But can the United States, as a global empire, really drop everything and go all out against China?Any decision a country makes must be inseparable from its economic interests.To analyze America’s strategic shift, it is necessary to clarify the economic line.In 1941, the United States and Britain signed the ABC-1 General Staff Agreement, in which the United States established the strategic principle of “Europe before Asia, Germany before Japan”.After World War II, American strategist George Kennan argued: “Great Britain, Germany, France and Japan must become key areas under American control because they have industrial and military capabilities second only to those of the United States and the Soviet Union.”Western Europe is, to put it mildly, in tune with America’s liberal democratic values.To put it crudely, the United States would never cede Europe to the Soviet Union, otherwise it would be isolated on the American continent.Since most of the Population and industry of the Soviet Union was concentrated in Europe, Europe became the main theater of confrontation between the two camps.At that time, the United States was the largest industrial country in the world, and its products were sold all over the world. Due to the sound economic foundation and strong consumption power of the people, Western Europe was the main profit source of American goods and the most important trading partner of the United States.Although during the Cold War, the two superpowers also engaged in bloody competition outside Europe, the main strategic resources of the United States were still invested in Europe, and NATO was the product of this policy.When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States looked around and found no enemy.In line with the idea of creating contradictions without contradictions and creating enemies without enemies, the United States and Europe launched a new round of sanctions against China out of ideological conflicts in the late 1980s and early 1990s. At that time, almost all foreign capital withdrew from China, causing a serious impact on the national economy and soaring prices.For those of you who are older, this wave of price rises is even more outrageous than the housing boom that followed the financial crisis of 2008.Later, out of its own arrogance, the United States believed that China would follow the old path of the Soviet Union sooner or later, and the “Theory of China’s collapse” began to appear. In order to turn China into another commodity market and raw material producing area of Europe and the United States, the United States gradually relaxed its oppression on China.We seized this historic opportunity and prioritized the development of labor-intensive industries. The fruits of our emphasis on national education began to show. Cheap labor and engineers flooded factories, creating a myth of export-led economic growth.(Guangzhou Haizhu Bridge in the 1980s — the flow of people going to work) But at that time, China’s industry was still dominated by low-end manufacturing, and it took place a story of exporting 100 million pairs of socks to buy an airplane.Businessmen are all in pursuit of profits. Some capitalists in the United States began to transfer some middle and low-end industries abroad, giving priority to countries with relatively stable policies, high labor quality and low cost, such as China, which only retained high-end manufacturing such as aircraft and precision machine tool manufacturing.While the other part of capitalists made huge profits by manipulating futures market and financial derivatives, and began to change from real to virtual, from producers to renters. Wall Street financiers began to accumulate wealth at an amazing speed, and also obtained a greater say in politics.Wall Street (night) also play the entity industry for the capitalists, they need to use China’s cheap labor, need to China’s huge population base of the vast market, and the lack of competitiveness of China’s high-end manufacturing, and a threat to them, so this part of the people’s attitude towards China is relatively moderate.But to the Wall Street financiers, we are the leek to be harvested. They want China to collapse as soon as the Soviet Union did, so that they can swallow up the wealth created by the Chinese people’s hard work by buying them at low prices. They are the main force of anti-China.Relations improved somewhat during the Clinton administration, but as the conservative Republican Party came to power, they labeled China as a “strategic competitor.”(Bill Clinton, former President of the United States) The Foreign strategy of the United States during this period did not have a clear focus for the whole decade. This was also the result of the conflict between the industrial capital and the financial capital in the United States. However, with the emergence of a major event, the movement of the United States to re-suppress China was interrupted.The outbreak of the 9.11 incident was a blow to George W. Bush who was dreaming of invincibility in the world.Strategic goals such as America’s decision to wage a “war on terror” meant that the White House had to seek cooperation with Russia, China and five Central Asian countries before it could feel comfortable going deep into Afghanistan to destroy al-Qaeda.As it turned out, in 2001, the US had won a cheap military victory in Afghanistan, and Mr Bush’s confidence had returned.The military victory that caused the U.S. strategic, George w. bush wanted to prove that I the united still randome, invincible, the us military-industrial complex endorsement people tend to American eyes, ablaze smoke everywhere, so they didn’t make money, so both sides hit it off, and the Iraq war erupted.(the war in Iraq under U.S. and little girl) as the main force in the Middle East, central Asia situation with erosion, long-term mission in Afghanistan, is in itself a high-cost, high-risk operations, and is for the United States for more than a century “offshore balancing” hegemony became the main means of the principle of “ocean”, become an army military spending and corruption of the bottomless pit.China and the United States are enjoying a honeymoon period, compared with the gulf.Diplomatically, when the US sent troops to Afghanistan, China did not object, and the other side reciprocated by recognizing the “East Turkistan” forces as illegal armed forces.Economically, the trade between China and the United States became closer and the total import and export volume reached new highs one after another. During this period, it was the massive cheap commodities produced by China that helped the United States maintain the stability of domestic economy and prices during the war. At this time, the focus of the Foreign strategy of the United States was undoubtedly on the issue of “anti-terrorism”.In 2008, two major events happened in the world, the SUBPRIME crisis in the United States and the successful Hosting of the Olympic Games in China.On the one hand, China’s economy is still stable and rising, and its technological level has improved significantly, which has gradually cultivated the power to disrupt high-end manufacturing.(In subprime America, who will disappear next?)On the other hand, the United States is Mired in the economic crisis, the “disintegration of China” seems to have become a distant goal, Wall Street’s sickle is not effective, and more and more advanced manufacturing sectors in China are feeling the pressure from China, and American capitalists are starting to lose their seats.Shortly after Obama took office, he launched the “rebalancing” strategy. Although he was affected by the financial crisis in the middle of the process, Trump, who came to power later, started the IMPLEMENTATION of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” at the end of 2017.From 2008 to 2018, China’s industrial structure shifted from low-end manufacturing to all-round development, and it even gained certain advantages in artificial intelligence and information technology.On the other hand, during the financial crisis in the United States, Obama’s behavior of saving banks rather than auto factories has shown that the power of financial capital has basically overwhelmed industrial capital, and the two attitudes toward China have also merged.Long-term industrial hollowing out first of all, the United States brought serious consequences, a large number of factories have closed or transferred, unemployed workers, whose property is looted the subprime crisis, formed the famous “rust belt”, so a trump “find bread and work for you” false promises, can harvest a lot of fans, anger is out of the workers, intentional manipulation in the media,They are pointing fingers at China.Florida abandoned factories (on) the local support trump’s citizens (the) second, in order to protect the interests of the state, China is gradually reduced its Treasury holdings, at the same time because of meng wanzhou, irregularities of foreign Banks capitalists also filed a vigilant, “within internal and external dual cycle, cycle is given priority to” policy further touched a nerve of Wall Street financier, they realized thatIt is becoming increasingly impossible to wait for The Chinese people to hand over their wealth, but the implementation of the Belt and Road policy has enabled numerous Chinese companies to go overseas and directly compete in the international competition, capturing the prey that many Wall Street people think should be theirs.So far, China’s wealth has been a thorn in the side of Both American industrial and financial capital.Since taking office, the Biden administration has not only inherited Trump’s “Indo-Pacific strategy” but also strengthened its “strategic competition with China” under the background that both parties and both the ruling and opposition parties regard China as a “strategic competitor”.Joe biden, the government continued to activate the trump government around the Renaissance (QUAD) security dialogue mechanism, with the “five eyes alliance” democratic countries “and” the beauty of the newly formed the anglo-australian trilateral security partnership (AUKUS) linkage, bringing in the association of southeast Asian nations (asean) in the area of the “print”, ring the bay of Bengal states, from the “print” area outside into the European Union and NATO forces,Containment of China in a wide range of areas and on all fronts.Conclusion: The trajectory of the shift of the STRATEGIC center of gravity of the United States is the trajectory of the global economic center of gravity. The future concentration of global wealth and economic growth represented by China is bound to become the focus of global competition.So, can the US really implement its China policy smoothly?1. Europe Recently, the United States relaxed the Nord Stream II oil and gas pipeline project jointly developed by Europe and Russia.Biden said he would lift sanctions against companies involved in the issue, but the next day the Treasury said it was keeping sanctions on Russian companies in place.(Nord Stream 2, which stopped gas delivery) People may think as a joke that Biden is senile, how can the order change overnight?In essence, this reflects the administration’s hesitancy in dealing with Russia and Europe and its geopolitical dilemma.In order to make an all-out effort against China, the US must concentrate its efforts, and that means it needs the support of its European Allies.But it is the European Union that has suffered most from the conflict.Russia has almost completed the “dollarization”, its foreign exchange reserves in dollars by Mr Putin is almost empty, but France, Germany, the degree of dependence on Russian energy more than 60%, this means that if you want to “kill pollen”, the eu will inevitably bloody price, the United States will lose the checks and balances the piece in Russia.If the US eases sanctions and the EU dies in vain, it would be a betrayal of its Allies and a serious tear in US-EU relations.(German Chancellor Martin Schulz, in an interview, rejected Ukraine’s bid to join NATO.) The balance is not so easy to strike.2. Middle East America’s weakness is there for all to see, and even Saudi Arabia has its eye on it.Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recently announced they were considering settling part of their oil trade in yuan, after both rebuffed secretary of State Blinken’s request for a meeting.(Foreign media reported that Sinopec signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Aramco — and jointly built a refinery.)With the promise to protect the House of Saud still on the table, Joe Biden will not commit to this self-inflicted folly.Loosen the grip on the Middle East?Iran would wake up laughing, the Israelis would go to the White House, and there would be no way out when less than 2.5% of America’s wealth is held by Jews.America can you stay away from the Middle East?No more petrodollars?In 2016, the Philippines used the Huangyan Island incident to draw in the United States to play a big drama.In the end, the Philippines found itself playing the clown, lost the island and lost its president.It’s only been a few years, but our asean brothers are not so forgetful about how the US cheated their teammates.Moreover, China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner, and countries are eagerly waiting for the factories that China shuts down to open their own homes. What can the United States offer?To the factory?You don’t have much left of yourself.American soldiers?Want to let asean these bitter ha ha ha learn Japan, South Korea to spend money to help you raise soldiers, on the way to their own please a ye?To sum up, the United States, as a global empire, has to pay a huge cost to maintain its hegemony. It is difficult to maintain its power in the face of decline. As Medvedev said, the days when the United States ruled alone are gone forever.China is definitely not the adversary that the US wants. Do you want to increase your military spending by 30 billion just to draw a gap with China’s weapons and equipment?It’s contemptuous. It’s just military bluster.China just needs to move on at its own pace, with Germany and France in Europe, trade in Southeast Asia, closer ties with Russia, and proper support for Iran, and the US will be overwhelmed.The fate of the country, the fate of the country, on the one hand by man, on the other hand, the day, not to accept.